Jax,
As usual you make many good points. Drop something small that looks good to eat on their nose with light line in clear water and usually they will suck it in.

I can't help but wonder though if a big fish is going to make a habit of tracking down a tiny snack that doesn't land on their nose. Certainly smaller fish will because the pay-off is still there.

There is also much to be said for the vibration that a big lure gives off coming through the water. Big in-line spinners and spoons and wobbling cranks all leave a vibration profile that is more easily felt by a fishes lateral line. They don't really have to even see it before they start an investigation.....As in "what the heck is THAT"!

Lastly I'll leave you with the best example I can think of where a bigger lure can make a difference. This doesn't prove anything, just something to consider.

I was fishing for walleye one morning below Kennebas falls for Walleye. I was throwing the big fat rap (which they have discontinued :'( ) and bouncing bottom with it. I probably tried a few other things I can't remember but that will usually get them if they want to chew. After about 45 minutes without any action I decided to press on and tied on a super shad rap which I was going to troll through Kawanipi. Before I shoved off I thought I might as well make a few casts with the big lure into the falls. First cast was a 6 lb walleye. 3rd cast was a 4lber. A few minutes later the lure stopped dead and I thought I was hung. I gave slack hoping the current would drift it back out of the rocks. When that didn't work I pulled. I was very surprised when it pulled back. I missed that fish. I left shortly after that because Kawanipi was calm and I was a noob and wanted to get across before the wind picked up.

I remember muttering to myself, "wow, these fish want it big" and I never forgot that lesson. Just another option I suppose.

I have a definition for luck....."Time and chance". You are right to point out that fishing is indeed often about luck.