BillConner wrote on Apr 27
th, 2020 at 4:29pm:
Try this. It worked when I pasted it in browser.
(You need to Login or Register to view media files and links)or google "flu map"
Pine-knot - mortality rate to me means deaths per capita. I thought the 0.7% of NYC was number deaths per number of people with antibodies, not the entire NYC population, just 20% of it - 12,067 deaths for 8,399,000 population or 0.14 %
US 2019 flu deaths 34,200 for 328.2m = 0.01% - a lot less than NYC; US COV 19 deaths 55,551 is than 0.017% - and sure to be double the 2019 flu before it's over.
(note in 2017-2018 flu season its was 80,000 deaths - varies a lot from year to year)
And I could be missing your point entirely but I think your .7% was deaths per 20% of population. You did say "can someone tell me my why my numbers are wrong" but you use the term lethality, and I don't know if that is different from mortality.
Well, maybe I should not be calling it lethality or mortality. Maybe I should be using disease burden? According to CDC, their flu burden chart has flu illnesses, hospitalizations and death. From 2010-11 thru 2017-18 seasons, if you divide deaths by illnesses (cases), the numbers range from 0.18% to 0.1%. Although 2017-18 had the most flu-related deaths at 61K, the ratio of deaths to cases was 0.14%. Interestingly, the highest ratio of death to cases was 0.18% which occurred in 2010-11 which reported 37K deaths and 21M flu cases.
My hunch is that is where the 0.1% number re seasonal flu comes from...?
In any case, when I look at the NY numbers, I still see a much higher ratio of deaths to cases with Covid-19, which indicates to me that it is much more "lethal" to us than seasonal flu. The true story won't be known till we find out how many people actually die due to Covid-19 and the total number of people who actually contracted the virus....we may never know....
db wrote on Apr 27
th, 2020 at 3:55pm:
... snip ... As an aside, a therapy would be helpful. I thought this was interesting if only to highlight how much we don't even know about the disease itself.
(You need to Login or Register to view media files and links) That is an interesting article, db. Hard for a dumb lay person like me to understand without reading it a couple more times. But Covid-19 is sure a squirrelly virus...
Heard earlier on TV a snippet of Dr Birx saying that what we really need on testing is a breakthrough antigen test so we can get results quickly as a point of care test...geez, another type of test to go along with PCR and serology (antibody) tests...
Here's an article regarding antibody tests that I read the other day....some are better than others, and several are useless...
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