HighnDry wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2020 at 2:34am:


"Our biggest fear, and the public's biggest fear, is a spike again and it comes back for a second wave. That's what keeps me up at night."

Ain't a chance in heck they reopen the southern border this year.  I don't blame them one bit.  Unless they can test at the border it's gonna be USA paddlin' this year.  I suggest they charge $100 USA money and get a test at the border.  Make it worth their while.  Maybe $200 per person?  Anyone that tests positive in your group and the whole group gets turned away.    

I gots the answers.  It's all about the testing.  Prove me wrong.  It's gonna be a spike here, a spike there, a spike everywhere!  If we don't go that route.

Another thing - this bit about all states doing their own thing?  I read that's like having a "peeing section" in the local swimming pool.  Good luck Georgia, and stay outta my state!

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Let's say we had enough test kits to test 350 million people. You go get a test and you're clean. On the way home you stop at 7-11, and as you walk in the guy walking out gets within that 6 ft social distancing and HE hasn't been tested yet and is infected.

  You get infected but you don't know it and then what? You'd literally need enough tests so everyone could test themselves before they enter their homes every time they left their homes.
   
  How do you make sure everyone gets a test if you had 350 million of them? They would have to declare martial law and suspend civil liberties to FORCE people to be tested and THAT is never going to happen.

  Tests are important but there is never going to be enough tests for 350 million people even ONE-time nevermind multiple times.

  They need that combination approach they talk about every COVID-19 briefing. That and more therapies and eventually a vaccine.

  I agree with BC, that Swedish approach just might
prove effective but you have to be willing to accept the cost?

  I'm sure when this is under control all the methods will be scrutinized over and over and even then they won't find a one solution fits all approach.

 

A little cold but wonder how many people are not dying because of vehicular crashes and other things, including "underlying conditions" as result of pandemic.

The Swedish "herd immunity" has me wondering if this distancing isn't just setting the table for a second wave.

In the past couple days I talked with two friends that own commercial property. One is in WI and the other is in IL. Both told me that if the state allows nonessential business to reopen before people (customers and employees) feel comfortable returning - the tentative, we're all in this together type agreements made get blowed up real good and shit will hit seriously the fan.

I don't see the longest unguarded border in the world opening any time soon w/o some degree of confidence. A "peeing section" in the local swimming pool analogy was great. To that I'd add half of of all Americans are of below average - you name it.

The Sweden thing was interesting so I did my own math yesterday. My findings were summed up in one paragraph from the CNBC link:

"The number of cases in Sweden is almost double that in neighboring Denmark (it has 8,108 cases and has reported 370 deaths) and Finland (with just over 4,000 cases and 141 deaths) that imposed strict lockdown measures. Since their populations are each about 5 million — half of Sweden’s — the rates are about the same, although the comparison could be skewed by testing numbers in each country. Still, Sweden’s 1,937 death toll is far higher than its neighbors."

This morning I was watching CNBC and heard about a preliminary study from NY showed 20% of those admitted to a hospital died. 88% of those intubated died. Oh and also the current antibody tests suck unless (and/or) people can actually get reinfected. Does the term 'Boomer remover' work for anyone here?

So where do we focus? Testing? PPE? Vents? Our budget deficit? China? Iran? The price of gas? Immigration?

This is uncharted territory for the even the folks that do this stuff for a living. Anyone else remember going to Quetico before there were maps with marked and stared campsites and stoves and tarps and lightweight canoes and and and...

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  There is so little we actually know about the virus in terms of trying to develop testing that spending millions for test kits that may or may NOT work as thought seems foolish to me.

  We know PPE works because the idea behind it is so basic/simple. If you don't come in contact with the virus, you can't catch it.

  I think we should put some of that COVID money into getting that UV light that KILLS the virus out into the general business world.

  Most businesses have a foyer area. You walk in, your bathed in SAFE UV light. Maybe have them in areas like bathrooms/kitchens etc.

You go to Krogers, they have a cart area. You set that up so the carts are being continually sanitized as used. You'd get cleaned too as you pick one up.

   Lights for your home and maybe a plugin one for your vehicle that will sanitize you as you wait a minute for your car to warm-up which is always a good idea.

  Simple things like PPE and UV lights that we KNOW work seemed more practical and cost-efficient vs tests that no-one know will work long term.

Same with the vaccine cure. They don't have a COMMON flu vaccine because there are multiple strains of it. They have to adjust every flu season.
Sometimes they get it wrong. Sometimes the flu shot makes people sicker than the flu might.

It could be that way with any Covid-19 vaccine.
Then you have the issue of whether or not you can MAKE people get that shot? All kinds of legal hurdles there.

  I could see a MAJOR economic boom in companies making those safe UV lights for all manner of uses.

You'd also see a boom for companies that convert/modify bldgs to have places to use that technology the best.

  I'd rather count on things the KNOW work rather than things they THINK will work but THAT might change as the DATA changes.