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This link is in reference to Copia.

I think we can all benefit from information sharing on caronavirus. We especially appreciate information from any medical professionals who may play here.

Old Salt wrote on Mar 9^th, 2020 at 2:49pm:


Not a medical professional but a mathematician.  The issue is exponential growth.  And if things get out of control it will overwhelme the healthcare system so many of those who would otherwise survive with good healthcare (which is still happening now), would not because the healthcare system would be so over burdened.  Here is a chart. I cannot vouch for the exact number's accuracy, but it shows what happens with exponential growth.  Reducing infection rates (for example by reducing groups sizes) has major effects.  And at this point, COVID is an order of magnitude more infectious than regular flu (we have vaccines and immunities to regular flu).  See also this article, (You need to Login or Register to view media files and links)

Thanks, Azalea.  You may not post much these days but when you do . . . 

I've come to the realization that it's going to be like this for quite some time.Let's say after 3 months of people being diligent and no major gatherings have gotten things under control and there's hardly any new cases popping up.  So what happens if we go back to life as we knew it?  Concerts, baseball games, family picnics, cruises, etc.... 

I think it's like a dry forest waiting for a lightning strike.  IMO we need a vaccine asap.  And we need to better prepare this country and the world for the next one.

azalea wrote on Mar 21^st, 2020 at 2:58pm:


Azalea,

This is an EXCELLENT summary of the situation.  Thank you for posting that link.  Along with what Michael Osterholm has published and what messages Dr. Fauci tries to send us through the fog of politics, it is as good of a statement re: the current situation as I have seen.

I have long admired the poetry of math.  I believe the following quote says it all:

"Without mathematics, there's nothing you can do. Everything around you is mathematics. Everything around you is numbers."

Shakuntala Devi

Every American should read that link you have shared, especially folks who still insist on "partying", or believing this is a hoax or will go away when it gets warm, or was ever "under control" in the USA.  The time for that has past.  Now it is time to try to "control the numbers" (ie. flatten the curve).

Thanks, again!

Jimbo   

Education is key.

Good stuff guys!

  I'm terrible with names BUT I always remember a face.  When I watched that Joe Rogan clip I instantly recognized that Osterholm guy.

  He's been on a few of the FOX shows I watch. I remember the first time I heard him talking about how so much of our critical medicine is made off-shore. I thought " I wonder how many people that NEED those medicines, know this? "

   I've been telling people for a long time that we needed to become ENERGY independent and now we finally are.

  This crisis will do the same for medicine, or at least it BETTER or we've have learned nothing.

  NO critical item this Nation needs should be SOLEY dependent on getting from ANY foreign nation, even our ALLIES.

  We need to do whatever it takes to bring that manufacturing here to America EVEN if it means we have to pay a few dollars more than we would for foreign-made goods.

  I knew about smoking being a major issue in deaths in China. You watch anything about China, you know many of the men especially smoke non-stop.

   He mentioned Obesity as being a high-risk factor too. With 45% of adults in the obese category, I hope people take heed to that? Now that we have to social distance, that means that people won't be going to gyms or maybe even outdoors to exercise.

  In times of great stress, people like their COMFORT foods. A long period of social distancing could mean ever more people join that 45% population.

  Good time to get into a home exercise program. Great to relieve the stress and losing weight will lessen your chances of death IF you do get the virus.

   Now if I could just FIND some TP at my local stores

  I'm working on my Paddling TP reserve right now.

Best wishes to Old Salt as you recover, and to Azalea with upcoming double knee replacement.

I had both mine done, but not at the same time.  Always have been very glad that I had the surgeries, but I am sure both of you know that the physical therapy is the key to success.  I hope you are still able to get PT in your area.

Math is cool until it's not. I personally think that when the NBA, NHL, MLB, NCAA, Copia... people with real money to lose, suspended activities knowing the financial hit they and a whole lot of other people would be taking, - it was a real wakeup call for the nation.

It bought us much needed time to begin to evaluate what was and could happen.

Jimbo wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2020 at 1:41pm:


  I like your rant and feel about the sameway. I hear people talking about how they want the PERSONAL Freedom to do whatever?

   What many, especcialy in the areas where that behavior is high-risk NEVER talk about or ACCEPT, is the PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY that SHOULD go hand in hand with that Personal Freedom.

   You can bet that if a large number of those people that are failing to do the right thing get sick and start dying in significant numbers, they will the ones CRYING the most and DEMANDING something be done to help THEM!

   Personal Freedom WITHOUT Personal Responsibility = Societal Chaos IMHO

  PS. That Kabar BK2 makes a effective BAYONET mounted on a nice thick pole. 

DentonDoc wrote on Mar 23^rd, 2020 at 2:37pm:


  I worked with many of them right before I retired.
There are exceptions, young VETS for sure. But from my PERSONAL experience, I don't think your critique is harsh ENOUGH.

  I call them MINIMALS. Thank God they're NOT the generation that had to save the world in WW2.

If they were, we'd be speaking German on the east coast and Japanese on the West. However we'd have plenty of SELFIES to document the HOURLY events of the day. 

I've done some research on youth and their ability to calculate risk-reward from an entrepreneurial perspective. Essentially, youth see "little to no risk" in many business ventures where a more mature cohort of business owners would calculate much higher risk. I am not surprised, unfortunately, to see that translating into social behaviors that are playing out now for Spring break. This can/and is easily translated into paddling behaviors as well in terms of taking on weather and water-condition such as rapids that a more seasoned, intrepid traveler would reconsider.

To be clear, I'm not painting a broad stereotype that everyone under a certain age is not careful, only that it is not unexpected to see a group of folks much younger than I am not take the current situation with as much gravity as I do. I only have to look no further than my own 17-yr old son 

  The Greatest generation was asked to go to war and save the world. The present generation(s) are being asked to stay home for a little bit, with the ability to stay in touch with everyone via the internet. They also have all kinds of media to entertain them.

  What's the matter with THAT picture. Our Grandparents brains were not anymore developed than the present generations are. The difference is they had a sense of patriotism/self-sacrifice, and knew right from wrong.

  Now right from wrong is viewed by many as strictly a endless GREY area. I still open doors for my elder's, women or anyone that looks like they could use the help. You very seldom see young people do even a simple think like that. When I was a kid that was just seen as COMMON courtesy, you didn't do it someone would let you know about it.


  Get off my Grass too 

Quote:


  I don't disagree with that at all. Still the kids of today have MORE access to information/History than ANY previous generation. They just don't seem to be willing to take the time to read it?

  Maybe they need a APP for that?   

+1 

boonie wrote on Mar 24^th, 2020 at 10:52am:

Looks like the young spring breaker in Florida who was spouting off about not being worried about catching coronavirus finally came to his senses.  From the news report I've read, he issued a very sincere apology for his statement.  It occurred to him that he had family, some of which were elderly, that he truly cared about and it was irresponsible of him to potentially carry the virus home with him to potentially infect his loved ones.

The statement continues with apologies to others for the insensitivity he demonstrated and his lack of comprehension of how serious the treat was.

It takes a stand-up guy to admit when he's wrong.  I think the kid grew a lot with this experience.

dd

Pine Knot's 90 day trip to the Quetico sounds like a good ticket these days. Imagine doing that with no outside contact and then coming back out.   

One thing is certain - this summer will be unlike anything we've ever experienced before.

It sure is going to be interesting.  I'm thinking a lot of last minute planning will be going on (including myself) and being flexible is going to be key.  It's going to be interesting to see how we choose to recreate once we start moving about again. 
I got away with planning a 90 bike trip but I don't think I'd get away with a 90 day canoe trip! 
Stay safe all.........

TomT wrote on Mar 25^th, 2020 at 7:09am:

If the darn Canucks keep the border closed but the BWCA is open, I suggest a modified Kruger Challenge.  Same start and end point, and all paddling is done on the border or U.S. side.  The modification is it's a race in which the winner is whoever takes the longest to get to Grand Portage.  The only rule is you can't exit the BWCA to replenish your supplies....it could work....

There used to be, or perhaps still is, a little roadside stand in Ft. Frances where we would stop and get some poutine.  It was on the way out of town heading north.  Great stuff!

Warning: Poutine, gambling and alchohol should be done in moderation.  All can lead to addictions which can be fatal

Stay safe out there.......

Don't you mean:

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dd

Went to Banff skiing last March. Flew into Calgary and went to a decent restaurant downtown.  Guess what we ordered for a side?
Good stuff! 

MossBack wrote on Mar 28^th, 2020 at 12:35pm:


   You look at the size portions MOST people eat and you can double the following:

Nutritional Summary:
Cals
513
Fat
26.76g
Carbs
54.66g
Prot
13.25g
There are 513 calories in 1 cup of Poutine.
Calorie Breakdown: 47% fat, 43% carbs, 10% prot.

  When I first started going solo to the Q, was when this nation was really talking about getting healthier and stemming the obesity epidemic and the related diseases that accompany it.

  With over 40% of adults in the OBESE category, I say we're not winning that battle.

  I noticed that the women I saw in Atikokan were much slimmer/fit than I would see in my semi-urban area.
I figured it was due to their rural/outdoor lifestyle.
Then I had a lull due to the recession that kept me away from the park for about 6 yrs.

  First thing I noticed was how there was more overweight people in Atikokan than before?

  I mentioned that to Q-Dave and he laughed and said " Did you see the DRIVE-THRU Poutine restaurant in town? He said they do gangbuster business all year long.

  So enjoy it if you like it, but keep your cardiologist speed dial like MB says if you value your health? 

A md doctor (non cardio type though) was along on the Banff trip.  He actually ordered it!  Of course I didn't want to slight him so I just had to indulge.  Once the clot cleared my heart a few days later I felt much, much better 

db wrote on Mar 28^th, 2020 at 1:28pm:


I just recently did a trip report from 1992, so I have a bunch of scanned film photos.   Would you want any of those?

I'll try to send more as well.

Thanks.......

Quote:




  Life is all about keeping EVERYTHING in perspective.
Since I'm staying in like everyone else, I've been watching a lot more history documentaries. This series has been around for awhile but I just discovered it on YouTube.

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  The show is about 90 minutes and gives the breakdown of every major battle in WW2 both in Europe and the Pacific.

  Watch the one about the Battle for Leningrad. The Russians lost 1.1 MILLION soldiers/civilians. The Nazis lost 800.000. This was just in one battle in a 4 yr war.

  As terrible as Covid-19 is even with the WORST models we are not going to lose as many people as ONE major battle in WW2.

   We are in a war of sorts with Covid-19 but we NEED to keep things in perspective. One of the first things these 90 minute documentaries prove beyond a doubt is that no matter how MUCH you plan or think will work, once the "battle" begins this RARELY work out as planned or as foreseen.

Like Mike Tyson used to say when a opponent said they had a fight plan to beat him? Everyone has a plan UNTIL they get punched in the mouth.

We'll get thru this. There are lessons to be learned IF we're willing to learn them. When the NEXT pandemic hits which it SURELY will, then we'll know if we really learned anything.

  I saw a guy wearing this on a T-Shirt the other day.  I don't know if he made it himself or bought it.
I tried to catch-up and ask him bu couldn't.

            BUY AMERICAN
            BUILD AMERICAN
            SAVE AMERICA

   If we learn NOTHING else, I hope we learn that we as a Nation should NOT rely solely on ANY other nation, neither FRIEND and especially FOE for our vital needs.

Anyone else catch the Packers beat the Bears today on Monday Morning Football?

(My wife spoiled the ending for me but it was still fun to watch.)

Might Man's best friend might be able to come to our rescue yet again?

  Imagine having FIDO at every workplace checking the workers before work. I'd give that a big paw-up if it proves viable?

I'd rather be sniffed by a great dog than stuck with a needle or swabbed in the nose. 

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db wrote on Apr 20^th, 2020 at 12:13pm:


  She was inspired by this 

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  On the haircut side, I see the FlowBee is sold out and most of the home haircut kits are getting scarce. If you KNOW what a FlowBee is, you're giving away your age. 

I let my hair grow over the fall/winter then get a short cut for spring/summer.

  I now have a mullet and my hair being thick/coarse and wavy, I have to soak it down every morning unless I shower to even get it to comb back.

I ordered a clipper kit from Amazon and got an e-mail notice that they don't know when it will be back in stock. 

I might have to try a home cut with just my barber shears but that will be the very last resort.

 

HighnDry wrote on Apr 22^nd, 2020 at 9:34pm:


"Our biggest fear, and the public's biggest fear, is a spike again and it comes back for a second wave. That's what keeps me up at night."

Ain't a chance in heck they reopen the southern border this year.  I don't blame them one bit.  Unless they can test at the border it's gonna be USA paddlin' this year.  I suggest they charge $100 USA money and get a test at the border.  Make it worth their while.  Maybe $200 per person?  Anyone that tests positive in your group and the whole group gets turned away.    

I gots the answers.  It's all about the testing.  Prove me wrong.  It's gonna be a spike here, a spike there, a spike everywhere!  If we don't go that route.

Another thing - this bit about all states doing their own thing?  I read that's like having a "peeing section" in the local swimming pool.  Good luck Georgia, and stay outta my state!

Quote:


Let's say we had enough test kits to test 350 million people. You go get a test and you're clean. On the way home you stop at 7-11, and as you walk in the guy walking out gets within that 6 ft social distancing and HE hasn't been tested yet and is infected.

  You get infected but you don't know it and then what? You'd literally need enough tests so everyone could test themselves before they enter their homes every time they left their homes.
   
  How do you make sure everyone gets a test if you had 350 million of them? They would have to declare martial law and suspend civil liberties to FORCE people to be tested and THAT is never going to happen.

  Tests are important but there is never going to be enough tests for 350 million people even ONE-time nevermind multiple times.

  They need that combination approach they talk about every COVID-19 briefing. That and more therapies and eventually a vaccine.

  I agree with BC, that Swedish approach just might
prove effective but you have to be willing to accept the cost?

  I'm sure when this is under control all the methods will be scrutinized over and over and even then they won't find a one solution fits all approach.

 

A little cold but wonder how many people are not dying because of vehicular crashes and other things, including "underlying conditions" as result of pandemic.

The Swedish "herd immunity" has me wondering if this distancing isn't just setting the table for a second wave.

In the past couple days I talked with two friends that own commercial property. One is in WI and the other is in IL. Both told me that if the state allows nonessential business to reopen before people (customers and employees) feel comfortable returning - the tentative, we're all in this together type agreements made get blowed up real good and shit will hit seriously the fan.

I don't see the longest unguarded border in the world opening any time soon w/o some degree of confidence. A "peeing section" in the local swimming pool analogy was great. To that I'd add half of of all Americans are of below average - you name it.

The Sweden thing was interesting so I did my own math yesterday. My findings were summed up in one paragraph from the CNBC link:

"The number of cases in Sweden is almost double that in neighboring Denmark (it has 8,108 cases and has reported 370 deaths) and Finland (with just over 4,000 cases and 141 deaths) that imposed strict lockdown measures. Since their populations are each about 5 million — half of Sweden’s — the rates are about the same, although the comparison could be skewed by testing numbers in each country. Still, Sweden’s 1,937 death toll is far higher than its neighbors."

This morning I was watching CNBC and heard about a preliminary study from NY showed 20% of those admitted to a hospital died. 88% of those intubated died. Oh and also the current antibody tests suck unless (and/or) people can actually get reinfected. Does the term 'Boomer remover' work for anyone here?

So where do we focus? Testing? PPE? Vents? Our budget deficit? China? Iran? The price of gas? Immigration?

This is uncharted territory for the even the folks that do this stuff for a living. Anyone else remember going to Quetico before there were maps with marked and stared campsites and stoves and tarps and lightweight canoes and and and...

Quote:


  There is so little we actually know about the virus in terms of trying to develop testing that spending millions for test kits that may or may NOT work as thought seems foolish to me.

  We know PPE works because the idea behind it is so basic/simple. If you don't come in contact with the virus, you can't catch it.

  I think we should put some of that COVID money into getting that UV light that KILLS the virus out into the general business world.

  Most businesses have a foyer area. You walk in, your bathed in SAFE UV light. Maybe have them in areas like bathrooms/kitchens etc.

You go to Krogers, they have a cart area. You set that up so the carts are being continually sanitized as used. You'd get cleaned too as you pick one up.

   Lights for your home and maybe a plugin one for your vehicle that will sanitize you as you wait a minute for your car to warm-up which is always a good idea.

  Simple things like PPE and UV lights that we KNOW work seemed more practical and cost-efficient vs tests that no-one know will work long term.

Same with the vaccine cure. They don't have a COMMON flu vaccine because there are multiple strains of it. They have to adjust every flu season.
Sometimes they get it wrong. Sometimes the flu shot makes people sicker than the flu might.

It could be that way with any Covid-19 vaccine.
Then you have the issue of whether or not you can MAKE people get that shot? All kinds of legal hurdles there.

  I could see a MAJOR economic boom in companies making those safe UV lights for all manner of uses.

You'd also see a boom for companies that convert/modify bldgs to have places to use that technology the best.

  I'd rather count on things the KNOW work rather than things they THINK will work but THAT might change as the DATA changes.

db wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2020 at 12:49pm:


  You have to keep some semblance of a sense of humor or else your mind could get and stay dark real quick.

solotripper wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2020 at 2:28pm:

BillConner wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2020 at 3:26pm:


Angela Merkel?

db wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2020 at 3:58pm:


So compare Sweden to state if Michigan. Both around 10,000,000; Detroit and Stockholm close if you consider metro area; Michigan with around 3000 deaths quite locked down; Sweden not locked down and only 2000 deaths.

HighnDry wrote on Apr 23^rd, 2020 at 10:12pm:


I agree but Stockholm is larger than Detroit but has fewer deaths. Just saying you can't dismiss the Swedish approach because of neighboring Norway and Finland. It seems to be about the density of cities. I Iive in upstate N Y and no deaths on tri county area, but the state leads the nation in deaths.

Hopefully we'll have answers from this pandemic before the next, and know what to do.

Truly amazing but all along its been not able to keep mouth shut. I am not looking forward to President Biden but seems inevitable.

BillConner wrote on Apr 24^th, 2020 at 4:51am:

Good points, Bill.

I forgot people huffed Lysol. God that's nuts.

Maybe he thinks the kids eating Tide Pods were ahead of the curve or maybe it was done purposefully, to distract from stories like this:

“We need to significantly ramp up not only the number of tests, but the capacity to perform them, so that you don’t have a situation where you have a test but it can’t be done because there isn’t a swab, or because there isn’t extraction media, or not the right vial,” says Fauci. “I am not overly confident right now at all that we have what it takes to do that. We are doing better, and I think we are going to get there, but we are not there yet.”

Or another huge conflict of interest emoluments story surfacing.
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He is a conman after all.

Arrrrgh. Forgive me.

Now he claims he was being sarcastic?

That's not how I saw it. I even remember him saying: "I'm the president and you're fake news" when Philip Rucker asked him about it later.
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He's half right. He is POTUS but - We. Are. So. So. Screwed.

I’m just very sad for our country right now. It would be nice to get daily updates from Pence and the docs. That’s what we need right now imo. We are in dire need of consistency and stability. Enough is enough already.

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Magicpaddler wrote on Apr 25^th, 2020 at 9:29am:

That was a long way to go just to end up here:
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Check the body language on the other guy. Paging Dr. Birx?

db wrote on Apr 25^th, 2020 at 2:52pm:


Please wear pants, db....ok?   

TomT wrote on Apr 25^th, 2020 at 5:10pm:


Did I miss that part? Oh got it, the comments. Nevermind.

db wrote on Apr 25^th, 2020 at 5:28pm:


No, I think there was another video without the reporters that I saw.  He mentioned that the stores were out of bullets and that people he knew were saying they were "ready to roll".  He also mentioned that trying to keep the economy shut down for political reasons will end in violence.  I'm sure the video is on you tube somewhere.  I don't want to post that crap here. 

Also, this guy is a doctor.  He doesn't study viruses for a living.  I'd love to see him debate Dr. Fauci and others on this pandemic.

BTW, the comments under this guy's you tube are truly alarming.  Did you know Dr. Fauci works for the Deep State and is conspiring with Bill Gates and the Globalists to overthrow trump?  I didn't KNOW that...... 

I may sound like a jerk but I do care and pay attention to this stuff. It's a hobby. I'm just get tired of people using Sweden as an example. I don't think it's a good example at all and plus, don't they have government healthcare?

The video guys own urgent care facilities and their business is suffering? Sorry. Welcome to the club. I'm just not buying that the data backs up their theory. Well, unless 'boomer remover' is the goal. Which, btw, is actually an argument I always use to make as a way to save SS and Medicare. I was being sarcastic.

The images are from:

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The real question I have (besides the best way to slowly open up our economy and keep our health networks from being overwhelmed and safe for the frontline folks) is the potential lethality of Covid-19.  The ER guys argue that it's similar to seasonal flu rates but the numbers they're using are really suspect.

We won't know true lethality unless the death numbers are accurate as well as knowing the total number of people infected.  Not sure which data is most accurate, but assuming the NYC antibody numbers are useful (about 20 percent infection rate) with population of 8.4 million and number of Covid deaths at about 12K, the lethality is about 0.7 percent, which is roughly 6 or 7 times more lethal than seasonal flu.  If we assume that rate for the whole US and that 100 million of us will eventually get infected before a vaccine, that'd mean about 700K deaths...can this be right? 

Even if the lethality is half that, that'd still mean 350K deaths....this is why I think we need to be very careful about opening up too quickly...can someone tell me my why my numbers are wrong?  I kinda hope I am wrong....

I'm just trying to understand if Covid-19 is worse than typical seasonal flu.  I think it is not just because it appears to spread much quicker but also that it is more lethal.  I used NYC antibody results because it seemed as good a data point as any as far as estimating total infections.  Not looking at immunity since we don't know if antibodies = immunity, temporary immunity or no immunity.  It is my understanding that the lethality of typical seasonal flu is around 0.1 percent.  I did not think that rate varied from state to state, but maybe it does? 

I would expect that subsequent waves of Covid-19 prior to a vaccine may lead to upwards of 100 million infections in the US population.  Could be a lot less if culturally we as a country keep adhering to social distancing, better hygiene, masks in public, etc as the economy opens up...

I can't get your link to work, Bill.

The number I look at is virus mortality rate (what I also call lethality since I'm not a doc).  So if I look at typical seasonal flu mortality, it seems to be around 0.1 percent give or take.  Although the number of infections can vary widely between states, urban vs rural, etc, the mortailty rate remains about 0.1 percent. 

Re New York and NYC, the mortality rate is about the same.  For NY state, the antibody tests showed about 2.7 million infections state wide, with about 16,500 deaths at that time.  That gives a mortality estimate of 0.6 percent compared to 0.7 percent for NYC, probably within the error range).  Both are 6 or 7 times the mortality rate of seasonal flu.  All of this assumes the antibody tests give a more or less reliable estimate of total infections at the time (which no one can say for sure).

I also hope we develop some immunity to Covid-19 provided we recover.  As Fauci says, once you get 60-70 percent of a population to have immunity, the virus becomes much easier to deal with with even without a vaccine.  I agree with you on the benefit of herd immunity in lieu of a vaccine being developed....but getting there could kill hundreds of thousands of us in the process if we're not careful...