Poll
Poll closed Question: How severe is Covid-19 as measured by hospital admitions
*** This poll has now closed ***


Not as severe as the normal seasonal influenza    
  0 (0.0%)
About the same as normal seasonal influenza    
  0 (0.0%)
More severe than the normal seasonal influenza    
  2 (33.3%)
The most severe infectious disease in the last 10    
  4 (66.7%)




Total votes: 6
« Created by: Magicpaddler on: Apr 16th, 2020 at 6:23pm »

 25 If you’re bored... (Read 29356 times)
Solus
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #50 - Apr 17th, 2020 at 9:25pm
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" With a larger population, you're always going to have larger mortality rates for almost every illness."

Mortality rate is expressed as deaths per thousand, or hundred thousand etc. It is a relative measure and should not be affected by population size.
  
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DentonDoc
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #51 - Apr 17th, 2020 at 9:47pm
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Solus wrote on Apr 17th, 2020 at 9:25pm:
" With a larger population, you're always going to have larger mortality rates for almost every illness."

Mortality rate is expressed as deaths per thousand, or hundred thousand etc. It is a relative measure and should not be affected by population size.

So, I'm puzzled.  If this is true, why is the global recovery rate for coronavirus at an 80% level, while in the US it is only barely above 60%?

dd
  
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solotripper
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #52 - Apr 17th, 2020 at 10:05pm
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Solus wrote on Apr 17th, 2020 at 9:25pm:
" With a larger population, you're always going to have larger mortality rates for almost every illness."

Mortality rate is expressed as deaths per thousand, or hundred thousand etc. It is a relative measure and should not be affected by population size.


  I should have said it better. I meant to say TOTAL deaths by the percentage of the population.
 
  
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solotripper
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #53 - Apr 17th, 2020 at 10:31pm
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  This shows what I was trying to say.

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   Were way down the list. Consider how much bigger we are than most all those countries.
  
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Magicpaddler
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #54 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 11:20am
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Solotrippers linked article (You need to Login or Register to view media files and links); explains better than I could why comparisons of death from one recording system to another down not work.  One thing I think we can agree on is the last sentence of the article.
Comparing confirmed cases is an even less reliable indicator because if you have not testing you have no confirmed cases.   
  
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TomT
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #55 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 12:03pm
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Magicpaddler wrote on Apr 18th, 2020 at 11:20am:

Comparing confirmed cases is an even less reliable indicator because if you have not testing you have no confirmed cases.   


Massive testing and contact tracing is the way South Korea solved this problem.  Some think we have that capability too but the administration has such shallow thinking to do it because that would just confirm higher numbers.  And well, the higher the number the worse he looks.  Gotta keep those numbers down folks, we got an election soon!  Now get working! 

The administration is working on a bandaid solution.  I get that we need supplies.  But letting people "loose" without a "Prevention Plan" is pure folly.  Look at it like this - when you have an ant problem in the house you sometimes will put out a poison with the hope a few ants bring it back to their house.

In America unlike places like Japan, Germany, South Korea etc. some of our people are careless.  Or "care - less".  I'd call them stupid but let's not get derogatory.  So, we get set loose, all go back to work with the majority being responsible with wearing masks, social distancing, etc.  But here's the thing, there's the careless (ants) who might show no symptoms that go out and bring back the poison to their families. 

Folks, that's all it takes for all of our large cities to look like New York.  I hope I'm wrong but without massive testing and contact tracing this will be our reality come August, September.
  
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solotripper
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #56 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 12:59pm
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  South Korea has about 52 million people.
The US has 327 million people.
There is NO-WAY we could do what they are doing.

They also don't have a Constitution or Bill of Rights like ours. I seriously doubt the government here could do what S. Korea has done and its citizens accepted without major LEGAL and CIVIL challenges by the people.

  Those growing back to work protests illustrate that.
 
If you watched the WH briefing you saw both Dr. Fauci and Dr. Birx and the CDC head give DETAILED explanations of why they DON'T need to test everyone and why the can't have a test for every single person.

  Suicide hotlines are lighting up and domestic abuse is on the rise. Getting back to work at even a slow crawl is the only cure for that.

  The election will ride on how the majority of people think the administration handled this crisis and getting the economy moving again overall.

  I hear a lot of his political critics say how they could do the job better but when I check their records when they WERE in power, they fall flat on their faces.

  They say Covid-19 virus is in your urine/poop?

  I think before next year they'll have a simple PEE test similar to a pregnancy test.

  A vaccine is a real answer but even then there could be issues. They could never develop a universal flu vaccine because the flu keeps mutating.

I've read that Covid-19 has mutated a few times too. A Chinese strain and apparently a European one?

  It could turn-out that like the flu they'll have to have a different vaccine every season to match the current mutation?

  Then you have to have everyone buying into getting that annual shot. Sometimes that regular flu shot has side effects that are worse than the flu?

  I've NEVER had the flu as an adult and never get a flu shot. I'm either very lucky or have a good immune system or maybe having it as a kid gave me some immunity?

  This is our first fight with Covid-19. Remember how things were when SARS and EBOLA hit the scene.
We learned a lot from our first bout with them and now BOTH are very treatable and NOT a death sentence. It will be the same with Covid-19.

  The REAL crime will be after all this the states DON'T stockpile like they should have BEFORE they needed it.

And IF the Federal government under a different administration goes back to adding layers of bureaucracy that hinder the private sector coming up with innovative treatments/cures in record times because the DC bureaucracy isn't tying their hands with endless layers of red tape.

  The 2020 election is going to be a referendum on that too.

 
  
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Spartan2
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #57 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 2:07pm
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Flu can be deadly, and it is no fun if you contract it.

I had the "Hong Kong Flu" in 1968.  It is the sickest I have ever been in my adult life with a disease:  severe body aches, weakness, deep cough, fever over 103 for four days, chills and shivering.  I have a healthy respect for flu and would never miss getting a yearly flu shot.

The University of Michigan Health Complex, and particularly the Transplant Center, is adamant that not only must Spartan1 get a flu shot, but also that he isn't to be around people who don't.  Hard to enforce that last part.

One of my fears is that, if we do actually get a vaccine, many people will decide that they aren't going to get it.  Like the situation with measles now, children dying because someone in charge of them decided that vaccines are dangerous, unnecessary, too much bother, etc.

Then we have a yearly Covid19 outbreak to expect, as well as a yearly flu outbreak.  Vaccines are only effective if people will get them.

I believe in immunizations.  I well remember the polio epidemic in the 1950's, and how relieved we all were when Dr. Salk came up with his vaccination.  It is very easy to protect against polio now, and I hope someday it will be easy to protect against Covid19.

Perhaps more interested because we are both high-risk.  Especially my husband who is immune-suppressed.
  
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solotripper
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #58 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 3:14pm
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Quote:
I hope someday it will be easy to protect against Covid19.

Perhaps more interested because we are both high-risk.  Especially my husband who is immune-suppressed.


  One of the "good" things coming out of this crisis is that our nation's ability to innovate is going at full speed. New technologies are going to spawn new business's as we go into the new "normal".

I saw an ex-NASA scientist on Fox this morning talking about a "new" style of UV light that can kill viruses but NOT cause skin cancer in humans.
If it works out maybe it will kill FLU virus too?

  They use UV light robots to sanitize hospitals but
no humans can be in there during the process.

Now some real smart people have found a specific wavelength of UV light that won't hurt humans.
  The guy on Fox was showing how they could make lights to mount in your car/house entry/workplaces/business entrances that would sanitize people every day while you live your life.

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TomT
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #59 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 3:54pm
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ST, right now we can model South Korea and we need a bold president to make it happen. Think back to when Kennedy said we’d put a man on the moon by the end of the decade. How many people scoffed back then?  I say put labs like Abbott and others on full time test production. We a large vision and proper execution of the plan we can do this. The alternative is to suppress the body count and focus on bandaids. Good luck.
  
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