Poll
Poll closed Question: How severe is Covid-19 as measured by hospital admitions
*** This poll has now closed ***


Not as severe as the normal seasonal influenza    
  0 (0.0%)
About the same as normal seasonal influenza    
  0 (0.0%)
More severe than the normal seasonal influenza    
  2 (33.3%)
The most severe infectious disease in the last 10    
  4 (66.7%)




Total votes: 6
« Created by: Magicpaddler on: Apr 16th, 2020 at 6:23pm »

 25 If you’re bored... (Read 29357 times)
Solus
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #60 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 4:36pm
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Once concern I've had since the beginning of COVID19 showing up in the US is that some number of our tests should be dedicated to randomized testing of the population. Without any idea of what the level of "background radiation" exists  any data from testing of symptomatic or "exposed" individuals is crippled by our complete ignorance of the "underground" prevalence of the disease in the general population. Our understanding and conclusions drawn from our limited data set are bound to lead to faulty conclusions of how best to deal with the disease. I'm still surprised that I have not heard or read of a single epidemiologist proposing or referring to randomized survey of COVID 19 infection.
  
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solotripper
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #61 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 5:01pm
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TomT wrote on Apr 18th, 2020 at 3:54pm:
ST, right now we can model South Korea and we need a bold president to make it happen. Think back to when Kennedy said we’d put a man on the moon by the end of the decade. How many people scoffed back then?  I say put labs like Abbott and others on full time test production. We a large vision and proper execution of the plan we can do this. The alternative is to suppress the body count and focus on bandaids. Good luck.


  They explained in that last briefing why that wasn't feasible or even needed at this point?

Dr Fauci/Dr Brix are world-renowned experts and they signed off on the restart plan so I have to think they know more than we all do about the subject.

  The other Dr with the beard whose name I can't recall said the CDC had models in place to track ALL patients admitted to the hospital with respiratory problems. They TEST those patients to see if its the seasonal flu OR Covid-19. If its Covid they can do that contact tracing people talk about.

  I think they are more on top of this issue than MANY in the mainstream TELL you for their OWN political agenda reasons.

  Watch the briefing on YouTube, skip to when the 4 Drs are explaining the tests and why they feel confidant we can go to Level One under the guidelines.

Like MP said, rather than being TOLD what they said or meant, watch/hear them say it and judge from there.

 
  
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #62 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 6:17pm
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Here's the transcript.
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Read what Dr. Birx actually said about antibody tests. (50:16) vs Donald Trump: (19:19) And please enlighten me if... She doesn't give me a warm fuzzy for phase one.

The insidious thing about this disease is that people can be asymptomatic and still transmit it. I agree it's essentially too late for current infection tests - I hope. We need antibody tests that work. States need to provide the human resources if required but the feds need to get the materials needed and labs that can process the tests. The Defense Production Act comes to mind. And we need full disclosure. The truth. Not this tippy toe feel good BS we seem to be getting from the daily briefings.

For all anyone knows, a large portion of the country could have already had it so transmission rates may be less than feared by now. No one knows diddly at this point.

What bothers me is the same guy who Tweets "LIBERATE MINNESOTA!" on April 17th, proudly tells us "We’re now the the king of ventilators. We have hundreds of thousands under construction." (GM will have produced 30,000 ventilators by the end of August.) Actually, I guess maybe those two things taken together do make sense if you lack empathy and just want to market a brand.
  
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #63 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 6:26pm
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Solus wrote on Apr 18th, 2020 at 4:36pm:
I'm still surprised that I have not heard or read of a single epidemiologist proposing or referring to randomized survey of COVID 19 infection.


A company in Iceland did that with volunteers. No symptoms required. As I recall, roughly 50% were asymptomatic. But, that's Iceland and probably a month ago so who knows?
  
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solotripper
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #64 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 7:11pm
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Quote:
Actually, I guess maybe those two things taken together do make sense if you lack empathy and just want to market a brand.


  Don't forget that the President HAD to use the threat of the Defense Production Act to GET GM to do what they promised to do. Same with 3M.

Far better for people and companies to step-up on their own than the government telling them what they should be doing. Bureaucrats DON'T know what a companies capabilities are any more than they know what the AVERAGE citizen is capable of doing.

  I wouldn't want to be in ANY President's shoes at a time like this. If they don't keep the country locked down until there are NO Covid-19 deaths as SOME would argue, he lacks empathy.

If he doesn't start the country working and businesses go out to never return, he lacks empathy for the working people.

  No matter what he does it will be wrong in the eyes of some people. The election will prove which point of view the majority of people have.

  
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Solus
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #65 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 7:40pm
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"Don't forget that the President HAD to use the threat of the Defense Production Act to GET GM to do what they promised to do. Same with 3M."

Actually Trump had to use the threat to get 3M to not do what it had promised to do; which was to fill orders it had contracts for with Canada and Latin America.

I don't believe that confiscating necessary medical supplies bound for our allies will pay dividends in any way shape or form.

Contract tracing for those admitted to hospitals is of limited utility in regards to a disease that most might never know they've had (thus my early post about randomized survey of the general population so there is some idea of baselines). If fewer than 10% of COVID positive folks are hospitalized, contract tracing based on hospitalization is futile.
  
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #66 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 7:54pm
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I think you just dodged my question ST. Smiley Fair enough. Here's another. What was the intent behind this name dropping BS?

Donald Trump: (34:03)
Fidelity investments, Abigail Johnson, MasterCard, Visa, Chubb, Sequoia, Stephens; Warren Stephens, great. Charles Schwab, Chuck Schwab will be here by phone. Food and Beverage National Restaurant Association, McDonald’s, Darden Restaurants, Coca-Cola, Pepsi Cola, Chick Fil A, Subway, Bloomin’ Brands, Yum brands, Papa John’s, Wendy’s, waffle house. Starbucks, Wolfgang Pub, Thomas Keller, John George, my friend John George and Danielle, you know them. From the transportation world, FedEx, Fred Smith, the legend. United Airlines, Oscar Beunos, UPS, David Abney, JB Hunt, YRC Worldwide, Crowley, Maritime, Credible, big powerful shippers in transportation companies. In telecommunications we have the legendary John Malone of Liberty Media, Verizon, T-Mobile, Charter Communications, and Brian Roberts of Comcast. Thank you all very much. Healthcare, New York Presbyterian, Jerry Spire, friend of mine, HCA Healthcare. Sam Hazen. Thank you, Sam. Just met with Sam. Ascension Health, Common Spirit Health, Community Health Systems, Trinity Health, Cardinal Health, McKesson, 3M. Thank you Mike Roman for helping us with the face masks. It worked out well for everybody. Proctor and Gamble, Abbott Laboratories, Johnson and Johnson, Merck, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Thermo Fisher Scientific.

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How was that waste of time helpful to anyone?
  
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Solus
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #67 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 8:00pm
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News of a general population survey. From ABC news:
"The first large-scale community test of 3,300 people in Santa Clara County found that 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested were positive for antibodies -- a number suggesting a far higher past infection rate than the official count.

Based on the initial data, researchers estimate that the range of people who may have had the virus to be between 48,000 and 81,000 in the county of 2 million -- as opposed to the approximately 1,000 in the county's official tally at the time the samples were taken.

“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health,"
  
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solotripper
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #68 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 8:04pm
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What is wrong with giving CREDIT where credit is due? Business people both large and small have been recognized in those briefings. Same with all the First responders he's always mentioning. You call it BS, I call it good PR.  Wink Grin Grin

  You can bet another President of a different party would be doing the same thing but not with the same people that's for sure.

  He hosted a little salute to the nation's truckers at the WH too, I think most of them appreciated the fact he was recognizing their importance too.

  
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solotripper
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Re: If you’re bored...
Reply #69 - Apr 18th, 2020 at 8:13pm
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Solus wrote on Apr 18th, 2020 at 8:00pm:
News of a general population survey. From ABC news:
"The first large-scale community test of 3,300 people in Santa Clara County found that 2.5 to 4.2% of those tested were positive for antibodies -- a number suggesting a far higher past infection rate than the official count.

Based on the initial data, researchers estimate that the range of people who may have had the virus to be between 48,000 and 81,000 in the county of 2 million -- as opposed to the approximately 1,000 in the county's official tally at the time the samples were taken.

“Our findings suggest that there is somewhere between 50- and 80-fold more infections in our county than what’s known by the number of cases than are reported by our department of public health,"


  I saw that stat too Solus and I listened to a noted medical doctor consultant say that wasn't really a bad thing?

  The more ACTUAL cases of infection, WITHOUT hospitalization or death, IF this small study holds true will DROP the percentage of deaths by million which is a good thing.

It would show the virus to be MORE Infectious than thought but not as lethal as thought either, that's a good thing.

He also said IF that is true it also bolsters the HERD IMMUNITY idea.

  Like I said before when this is all played out, there will be some assumptions that will be proven patently false and others we haven't yet come to know/understand to be true.

  Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy ride.


  
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